In all of our assessments regarding the future of our economy, there is always a warning attached which goes something like this -- unless the European debt crisis explodes. We had some good news regarding the economy in the past several weeks, especially with regard to the all-important employment sector. Last week there were not as many economic releases to focus upon. This enabled the markets to refocus upon events in Europe and it is reassuring that, at least for the moment, the crisis does not seem to be boiling over. The news from Europe seems to be positive one day and negative the next. What we need is our economic recovery to be as strong as possible right now to help lift Europe out of its malaise but also withstand weakness coming from Europe.
Corporate earnings reports also started flowing this week. Many have made a big deal about the fact that corporate earnings experienced double digit growth in the past few years but this did not result in the significant hiring of new workers. Well, now workers are being hired and the pace of earnings growth is expected to slow this year. What we can't have is corporate earnings slowing too much so that the momentum of a stronger labor market is halted. Expect there to be a significant focus on results reported during each earnings season this year. Meanwhile, though oil prices closed the week lower, the stronger economic news has coincided with a general rise in the price of oil. Much of this movement has been disguised because seasonal factors have kept gasoline prices low. Eventually gas prices will start rising if oil continues to settle northward of $100 per barrel. This would be one of the costs of a "better news" economy.
The worst for the housing market may finally be over, according to housing experts in a recent article in Kiplinger. After median home price have dropped nearly 40 percent nationwide, a rebound is taking shape -- although, housing experts say, the market may stay flat for awhile before gradually ticking up. According to housing experts in a recent Kiplinger article, here are some predictions for the real estate market in the coming year:
Home prices stabilize: Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, predicts that home prices nationwide may still drop another 3 to 5 percent in 2012, but the new year will most likely finally bring a leveling off of home prices before gains start to take shape in 2013. When markets do begin to stabilize in the new year, “price appreciation tends to spread unevenly, creating a lot of confusion about where the recovery is occurring and when,” David Stiff, chief economist at Fiserv Case-Shiller, told Kiplinger. “Even within a single city, more desirable neighborhoods will stabilize first, while prices in other neighborhoods may fall at a rapid pace.”
Housing affordability high: Housing affordability -- the ratio of median home prices to median family income -- will likely remain at record levels in 2012. Homes in many cities are “substantially undervalued,” the Kiplinger article notes. That may even lead to a mini bubble with double-digit spikes in prices, such as an increase of 10 to 15 percent in a given year in some markets, housing experts say.
Low rates: Helping to keep affordability high, low interest rates are expected to continue on in 2012 -- at least the first part of the year, economists predict. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, the most popular among home buyers, has been hovering under a 4-percent average the past few weeks, staying in record low territory. Rates are expected to stay between 4 to 5 percent in 2012, predicts Guy Cecala, publisher of Inside Mortgage Finance, an industry publication.
Sales increases: The National Association of Realtors® has already been showing a tick up in sales taking shape with increases in existing-home sales during the summer and early fall of 2011. High inventories of homes continue to flood the market but a drastic slowdown in new-home building the past three years is “gradually easing the surplus,” the Kiplinger article notes.
Foreclosures: Foreclosures remain the problem and still plague many markets. After a slowdown with lenders processing the paperwork, foreclosures have begun to pick up once again. About 1.84 million home loans are 90 days or more delinquent and 2.17 million have finished the foreclosure process but aren’t up for sale yet, according to RealtyTrac data. Alex Villacorta, director of research and analytics at Clear Capital, told Kiplinger that he predicts regardless of the downward price pressure caused from foreclosures, overall home prices won’t fall as long as lenders bring additional foreclosures to the housing market at a steady pace.
Source: Kiplinger
