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Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Rancho Santa Fe Association 2008-2009 Assessment Rate

The Rancho Santa Fe Association board finalized and approved the assessment rate for 2008-2009 at its Oct. 16 meeting.Approved at 14 cents per $100 of assessed valuation per the San Diego County Assessor’s roll, 11 cents of the 14 cents will be applied to General Services and 3 cents will go towards Open Space.The rate was originally presented by Chief Financial Officer Steve Comstock at the Finance Committee’s June 5 meeting with the RSF Association, during which they approved the 2008-2009 fiscal operating budget. Per the July 1, 2008 edition of the San Diego County Assessor’s roll, the total valuation for all Covenant properties is $4,155 billion. The total assessed valuation represents a 5.22 percent increase over last year’s valuation of $3,949 billion (that increase is slightly lower than the approximate 6.5 percent initially projected). President Lois Jones thanked Comstock for his “astute” managing of the budget. The assessment rate will be mailed to the membership by Nov. 1. Also approved at the meeting were the audited financial statements for 2007-2008, presented by Comstock and Ron Mitchell, a partner with the Association’s auditing form of ATK, LLP.Director Bill Beckman expressed his “tremendous confidence in the accuracy of the audit.” Association members will receive a copy of the financial statements by Nov. 1.

Monday, September 15, 2008

Quite A Day On Wall Street!

September 15, 2008

Wall Street is reeling today after The Bank of America announced that it will buy Merrill Lynch, the largest US brokerage company, for $29 per share or close to $50 billion. The proposed share sale price represents a 70% premium over last Friday's closing price of $17.05 for Merrill stock. In other dramatic news, Lehman Brothers has been forced to declare Chapter 11 bankruptcy after failing to arrange a rescue attempt to save the company. Lehman is holding an estimated $60 billion in toxic real estate holdings.Global Stock market plunged overnight that has led stocks here in the US to plummet at the open of trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen more that 300 points. Oil prices are also moving lower this morning as Lt. Sweet Crude is down more that $4 at $96/barrel. The fallout continues as AIG, the world's largest insurance company, announced it is restructuring its assets and is seeking to raise an additional $40 billion in capital to avoid a credit rating downgrade. There is speculation AIG will need to borrow directly from the Fed. To make this process easier, the Fed announced last night it is expanding the types of collateral financial institutions can pledge to obtain emergency loans.In an effort to avoid an international meltdown, the Federal Reserve and a global consortium comprised of Bank of America, Barclays, Citibank, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley and UBS agreed to provide $7 billion each to create a $70 billion pool of emergency funds to lend to distressed financial companies. According to the banking group, the newly created capital pool is designed "to help enhance liquidity and mitigate the unprecedented volatility and other challenges affecting global equity and debt markets."

Rates for Loans under 697,500 have fallen dramatically in the last couple of days from this news but the jumbo rates have been unaffected.

Monday, September 8, 2008

Finally...A Positive Story On San Diego Housing

A Housing Flip-Flop


Local market now most 'undervalued' in state, study finds
By Roger Showley
UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER
September 5, 2008


San Diego, which three years ago had one of the most overvalued housing markets in the country, is now the most undervalued in California, the economic and financial analysis company Global Insight reported yesterday.
The market has improved because housing prices have fallen about 32 percent from their peak, while incomes have continued to increase.
“A metro area like San Diego has, in a sense, fallen too much,” said James Diffley, who directs Global Insight's regional services group.
But he cautioned that prices could drop an additional 10 percent over the next year before they level out and start climbing again by 2010. Diffley cited the continued influx of foreclosures on the market, the weak economy, and tougher lending standards that will make it difficult for buyers to get mortgages.
On the other hand, Southern California benefits from a strong export market and is not as depressed economically as some other regions of the country.
“You still have a huge amount of properties for sale,” Diffley said. “That's going to depress prices further, regardless of what you think about the (area's economic) fundamentals.”
Global Insight, a Massachusetts company that conducts economic and financial analysis and forecasting, has more than 3,800 clients in 14 countries.
Drawing on data from National City Corp. in Cleveland, Global Insight said San Diego single-family resale housing, which had a median price of $349,300 in the second quarter, was 17.2 percent undervalued, based on household income and prices. In the second quarter of 2005, single-family housing, then with a median price of $505,900, was 39.1 percent overvalued.
In national terms, San Diego ranked as the 29th most-overvalued market in 2005 and, most recently, the 33rd most-undervalued in the ranking of 330 metro areas.
The rankings are based on price-to-income ratios, mortgage rates and historical trends in each metro area. An area is deemed undervalued when the value is at least 15 percent under the fair value and deemed extremely overvalued when it is at least 35 percent over the fair value.
Esmael Adibi, director of the A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research at Chapman University in Orange, said he agreed with some of Global Insight's findings. But, he said, the outlook is clouded by the prospect of more troubled home loans and tighter underwriting standards by lenders.
“There's still downward pressure on prices, in spite of improvements in affordability,” Adibi said.
He predicted Southern California's economic outlook remains cloudy because of the housing downturn.
“We benefited disproportionately from construction spending and the mortgage industry,” Adibi said. “Now, they are the two industries that are the weakest and, consequently, we are disproportionately hit harder.”
The Global Insight analysis noted that San Diego's last housing downturn lasted 27 quarters, from 1990 to 1997. Prices, which were overvalued by 19 percent in the fourth quarter of 1989, dropped a total of 14 percent.
This time, prices have dropped much faster in a much shorter period, but the timing of the upturn isn't clear.
“So many things have to fall in place,” Adibi said, “and I don't think they will all fall in place in the very near future, in 2009.”
W. Erik Bruvold, president and chief executive of the San Diego Institute for Policy Research, said the current economic downturn is so different from the past that it is difficult to predict the outcome.
But the strength of San Diego's non-real-estate economy should bode well for a quick housing upturn once it happens, he said.
“Our future, in a lot of ways, looks like the Bay Area's within the coastal hills,” Bruvold said. “We have no vacant land; it's all infill (for future housing development), and people still want a detached home with a yard and kids.”
Norm Miller, academic programs director at the University of San Diego's Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate, discounted Global Insight's undervaluation findings as virtually meaningless for San Diego. Miller said the prices are based on low-priced foreclosed homes, which are dominating the market.
And in high-priced areas such as San Diego, buyers typically pay more of their income or draw more from their assets to buy than in other areas.
MDA DataQuick previously reported that nearly 41 percent of all resales in July involved foreclosures, while the number of foreclosures topped 2,000 for the first time, three times the figure of July 2007.
Miller agreed that prices will drop further, probably an additional 5 percent, and that a recovery is six to 18 months away.
“We're still softening and going to soften until more of the inventory and shadow inventory – which is expired listings that didn't sell – come back on the market (and sell), and that takes a while,” he said.
Miller said a forecast he developed for Los Angeles probably holds true for San Diego – with prices bottoming out in the second quarter of 2009 and increasing starting in 2010.
Global Insight said Los Angeles was 5.2 percent overvalued in the second quarter, virtually the same as 5.3 percent in Riverside-San Bernardino.
The San Francisco Bay area, with an undervaluation of 15.9 percent, was the only other California market to be considered undervalued in the Global Insight analysis. Orange County had an undervaluation of 12.4 percent.
Among all metro areas, Atlantic City, N.J., with a median price of $258,900, had the most overvaluation at 51.6 percent. Houston, with a median of $122,300, had the most undervaluation at 34.4 percent.
Global Insight said prices nationwide dropped less in the second quarter than in the first, while only six markets, primarily in the Northwest, were judged extremely overvalued, down from 51 in 2005.
“Nevertheless, real estate markets are not ready to recover,” Global Insight said. “The building and financing excesses of the boom years have yet to be worked off. There remains a huge inventory of unsold homes on the market, with foreclosures adding more daily.”

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Rancho Days 2008 Is Right Around The Corner

Summer may be coming to a close, but autumn promises lots of fun here in Rancho Santa Fe! Beginning Sept. 20 through the 27th, the week-long tradition of Rancho Days celebrates the rich life and history of this unique community. Celebrating the 80th Anniversary of Historic Rancho Santa Fe, this year’s line up of events promises to be better than ever!

Sunday, June 29, 2008

New RSF Wireless System To Launch Soon

Workers are completing construction of a new wireless communications system expected to improve both cell phone reception and broadband Internet access in the Rancho Santa Fe area.
ExteNet Systems is building the new wireless system under an agreement with the Rancho Santa Fe Association. The Association board was told at its Thursday, June 19, meeting that the new system is expected to be up and running by August.

Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Spring Is Here!

Thanks to all the rain this last winter, the Ranch is GORGEOUS! The flowers are blooming, trees are sensational and the grass on the golf course is emerald green.

With Spring comes change and the Ranch is undergoing a cosmetic facelift of sorts. Here is an excerpt from the Rancho Santa Fe Review...


County lays out RSF road maintenance plans

By Ian S. PortAssistant Editor

The county of San Diego plans to make nearly $5 million in improvements to Rancho Santa Fe roads over the next four years, according to a tentative schedule of local road projects that was recently released.
The document lays out the order in which the county plans to fix potholes and upgrade road surfaces over the next few years, but is not final. Rancho Santa Fe Association officials say they might lobby the county to change the order of certain projects in order to get the most worn roads improved first.
Resurfacing is scheduled for parts of El Mirador, El Vuelo, EL Vuelo del Este, El Zorro Vista and others this year, and new sealing is planned for a long list of roads that includes Avenida De Acacias and Via De Santa Fe. The full list is available from the RSF Association.
“We know the roads a little bit better than they do — first hand,” said Association Manager Pete Smith. “They look at it from a much higher elevation than we do.”
Smith wouldn’t say which Covenant roads he thought needed the most work, but said the Association would consult RSF Patrol Chief Matt Wellhouser and Director of Facilities Dick Brockett in deciding which roads to ask the county to fix first.
He said some of the older roads — parts of which are nearly three decades old, according to the county list — would need more than simply patching and resurfacing to be able to handle today’s heavier cars and SUVs.
The county spent nearly $3.5 million sealing and resurfacing roads in the Covenant from 2003 to 2007, according to the RSF Association, and several of those projects included smooth and quiet — but more expensive — rubberized asphalt.
Planning Director Ivan Holler said the Association would ask the county to use the long-lasting asphalt often on new projects, and may try to work a deal where the HOA covers the upfront cost difference.“I would think that’d be very easy to do,” Holler said

Saturday, January 12, 2008

The Biggest Stories In Rancho Santa Fe in 2007

1. Witch Creek Blaze Nearly Claims RSF Village.

Thousands of residents evacuated the Rancho Santa Fe area at the ring of a reverse -911 call on the morning of Oct. 22, urged to get out of the way of a massive, Santa Ana fueled Witch Fire that would claim over 55 structures, most of them private homes, before residents were allowed to return. A decisive moment came late that night, when walls of fire howled perilously close to the Rancho Santa Fe Village after demolishing dozens of homes to the east. Fire crews took a stand in the area along Via De Santa Fe and Camino Selva and by pointing their fire hoses straight into the air, saved the local commercial district from the storm of wind-whipped ember and flame. When all the flames were out and residents returned, the outpouring of gratitude was immense. The gratitude and giving continues to this day.



2. School District Finds Light at End of a Long Tunnel.

In a banner year for the Rancho Santa Fe School District, trustees and a superintendent saw one overcrowding solution suddenly vanish, only to come together on another direction before the end of the year. Plans to purchase a 28- acre site at Calzada Del Bosque and Via De La Valle for a district wide middle school were announced in early April, with the district hoping to earn the support of 55 percent of voters for what would have been a $60 million school bond. But the school's plans disintegrated almost overnight after the Rancho Santa Fe Review broke news in early August that a local resident and noted horse breeder, Larry Mabee, had purchased the Calzada site for a horse ranch. School officials were despondent, and some residents were angry. Results in an October based survey showed that most residents favored a long-discussed plan to vastly renovate the R. Roger Rowe campus, trustees and Superintendent Lindy Delaney decided to push for a $34 million bond in 2008 to do just that. Though the bond may pass in 2008, it is 2007 that will be remembered for putting the district on its current trajectory.

3. Traffic Troubles or Trifles?
While work quietly continued on the Rancho Santa Fe Association's plan to install three roundabouts at the north end of the village, some residents urged the HOA to take more immediate steps-adding fuel to an issue that burned in the minds of residents all year ling. The RSFA'S Road and Traffic Committee asked the Association in July for $30,000 to study traffic along Paseo Delicias, including the possibility of installing temporary stoplights at the three intersections planned to eventually have roundabouts. While most residents wanted the signals temporarily- as a minor panacea to the problem of cut-through commuters speeding down residential streets-a few residents,at least, said they wouldn't mind of the signals became a permanent feature. But the RSF Association Board of Directors, as well as many residents, balked at the idea of giving up in the area's long-fought aversion to traffic signals. Eventually, the request for a traffic study was denied. But as the slow process of preparing for roundabouts continues, another year of cross-country pressure on local Rancho Santa Fe roads has residents more exasperated than ever.

4. Mixed Reviews for Mixed-Use Development.
It may be called "The Lillian", but local residents didn't savor the original version of a proposed residential and commercial project like they do the creations of the woman who gave the Rancho its signature style. At least not at first- the architecturally detailed proposal earned biting criticisms for the audiences at a meeting in July to announce it. The Spanish Colonial style proposal for the corner of Avenida De Acacias and El Tordo, if approved, would be a major commercial and residential addition to the village.

5. Village Planning And Problems.
While the Association toiled away on preparations to implement its Village Master Plan-major work will begin in 2008-the owners of the gas station in the village saw an initial victory in their legal battle with the HOA, claiming they owed funds for years of improper zoning of their property. A judge ruled in August that the property, on which a gas station was built in the 1960's, should be zoned entirely for commercial use. The Association , arguing that the board of directors never officially granted permission for the gas station, has considered half the property zoned for residential use only. It plans to appeal the judge's ruling after two more issues in the case.

Thursday, January 3, 2008

Here's To A Great 2008!

Happy New Year!

Could this be the year for a BIG change for the Ranch?

Here is an article from the RSF Review worth reading:




By Ian S. PortAssistant Editor


A long-stewing question that has divided the Rancho Santa Fe community in the past will return to center stage in 2008, when a group of residents will ask local voters to sign petitions on an issue that could change the area forever: Should Rancho Santa Fe incorporate into a town?
A group of local activists, including Dick Chandler and Marion Dodson, have been preparing a campaign to convince voters that the answer to that question is yes. Their group, which calls itself Citizens to Protect the Ranch, argues that incorporation would provide more local control over development issues, better law enforcement and more responsive local government — while potentially saving Covenant residents money on their homeowners association dues.
“Things are not as good as they could be and should be,” said Dick Chandler, a major proponent of the incorporation effort. “The quality of life is not what it was 25 years ago. The traffic problem was not what it is today, the streets were in better condition, there wasn’t the urban encroachment that’s filled in around us. People sooner or later are going to decide that they want to control their own destiny.”
Chandler and CPR have been working with the Local Agency Formation Commission (LAFCO) on preliminary studies to determine the boundaries of the town, which would include all of the Covenant, as well as communities between it and Encinitas. The Rancho Del Rio and Hacienda Santa Fe developments would be included along with several other areas.
But all the major gated communities — Fairbanks Ranch, The Bridges, Cielo and the Crosby — would lie outside of the boundaries of the proposed town. The southeastern edge would run along the San Dieguito river, and the northern edge would fall along Escondido creek west of the Bridges development. The town would be bordered on the west by Solana Beach and Encinitas, and on the south by San Diego.
To put incorporation on a ballot and get LAFCO to formally approve any boundaries, CPR will have to get signatures from 25 percent of the voters in the proposed town or 25 percent of the landowners who own at least 25 percent of the property in the area. The group has six months from the planned start of the petition drive in January to accomplish this.
Chandler said they plan to argue that a town could fund a higher level of service with less cost to citizens by capturing property tax revenues that now go to the county, and with a 5.5 percent utility users tax that would cost most residents about $30 per month.
With those revenues, he said, a town could fund a police department of 15 uniformed officers and five dispatchers that would always have two officers on patrol. He says a local police force could dramatically improve response times over the County Sheriff, which can take as long as 43 minutes to respond to some low-priority calls.
He also argues that Rancho Santa Fe experiences a very high level of burglaries compared to other towns of it size and demographics — something he says a local police force could change.
“The best service we could have would be a local police department that would have a five or six minute response time,” proponent Marion Dodson said.
The CPR group also says that local government would do a better job of limiting development in the area, helping to preserve local property values.
“Counties have a pro-development bias,” he said. “Counties are for increasing development, increasing their tax base … towns guard their open space zealously and are sort of anti-development.”
Though many are happy with the level of services Rancho Santa Fe currently receives from the county, Chandler and the CPR group argue that the interests of the two bodies are inherently in conflict, and that incorporation would strengthen the Ranch position in the future.
He worries that the county will eventually push for the widening of the county through-fares that traverse the community, and that open spaces now taken for granted will disappear as high land prices drive more development.
“You go fast forward 25 or 50 years and now Chino’s is gone and the Sahm property’s been sold off, the reservoir has got homes on it. One by one, the open spaces will disappear,” Chandler said.
In documentation on its Web site, CPR says that though voters would have to approve a utility user’s tax, their ultimate financial burden would decrease because of services now performed (for Covenant residents) by the Association that would become redundant under incorporation. They predict possibly 40 to 60 percent reductions in Association dues.
Chandler said CPR will begins its petition drive likely in January, and that it will be handled through home meetings and volunteers — not paid signature gatherers.The RSF Association is not currently taking a position on the proposal, according to Manager Pete Smith. The RSF Association paid for several incorporation studies in the 1990s but abandoned the effort when it became clear that the boundaries of an incorporated Rancho Santa Fe would include other neighborhoods and homeowners associations.
The incorporation effort — which has simmered since a vote for it failed in 1987 — is likely to generate a hefty amount of controversy, especially among residents who are satisfied with the area’s current relationship with the county.
“I don’t think it’s in the best interest of the members of the Covenant,” said resident — and a former Association board president — Bill Hinchy, a strong critic of past incorporation efforts. “If you want to talk about land use control, can you think of any place in California or anywhere that has more control than the Art Jury and the Covenant over how land is used? I can’t. I can’t think of any benefits.”
Proponents of incorporation admit they will see hardened opposition to the idea, but they say they’re ready with good arguments.
“If they had visited even one or two of the towns I’ve visited [in researching incorporation], they would have a completely different opinion,” Chandler said of incorporation critics. “If we don’t do this now, 25 or 50 years from now it will happen. It’s going to happen.